# The Azimuth Project Blog - Science, models and machine learning (Rev #6, changes)

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# Science, models and machine learning

The members of the Azimuth Project have been working on both predicting and understanding the El Niño phenomenon, along with expository articles such as this. So far we've mostly talked about the physics and data of the El Niño, along with looking at one method of actually trying to predict El Niño events. Since there's going to more data exploration using methods more typical of machine learning, it's an opportune time to briefly describe the mindset and highlight some of differences between different kinds of predictive models.

statistics ML same

For our purposes here, a model is any systematic procedure for taking some input data and providing a prediction of some output data. There's a spectrum of models, ranging from physically based models at one end to purely data based models at the other. As a very simple example, suppose you have a commute by car from your place of work to your home and you want to leave work in order to arrive home at 6.30pm. You can tackle this by building a model which takes as input the day of the week and gives you back a time to leave.

• There's the data driven approach, where you try various leaving times on various days and record whether or not you get home by 6.30pm. You might find that the traffic is lighter on weekend days so you can leave at 6.10pm while on weekdays you have to leave at 5.45pm, except on Wednesdays when you have to leave at 5.30pm. Since you've just crunched on the data you have no idea why it works, but it's a very reliable rule when you use it to predict when you need to leave.

• There's the physical model approach, where you figure out how many people are doing on any given day and then figure out what that implies for the traffic levels and thence what time you need to leave. In this case you find out that there's a mid-week sports game on Wednesday evenings which leads to even higher traffic. By proceeding from first principles you've got a more detailed framework which is equally predictive but at the cost of having to investigate a lot of complications.

The one of those American medication adverts which presents a big message about "Using a purely data driven techniques is wonderful" while the voiceover lays out all sorts of small print. The remainder of this post will try to cover some of the simplest parts of the

## How much data?

data usage

So suppose we're trying to model a system where the some aspect has a true probability distribution $P()$. We can't directly observe that, but we have some samples $S$ obtained from observation of the system and hence come from $P()$. Then Clearly there are problems if we generate this sample in a way that will bias the area of the distribution we sample from: it wouldn't be a good idea to try to get training data featuring heights in the American population by only handing out surveys in the locker rooms of basketball facilities. But if we take care to avoid (as much as possible) any bias, then we can make various kinds of estimates of the distribution that we think $S$ comes from; lets call the estimate implied for $S$ by some particular procedure $P'()$. It would be nice if $P = P'$ wouldn't it? And indeed many good estimators have the property that as the size of $S$ tends to infinity $P'$ will tend to $P$. However, for finite sizes of $S$, and especially forsmall sizes, $P'$ may have some spurious detail that's not present in $P$.

As a simple illustration of this, my computer has an pseudo-random number generator which generates essentially uniformly distributed random numbers between 0 and 32767. I just asked for 8 numbers and got

• 2928, 6552, 23979, 1672, 23440, 28451, 3937, 18910.

Note that we've got 3 values (23440, 23979 and 28451) an interval of length 5012 between 23440 and 28451. For this uniform distribution the expected value of the number within that range is 1.2ish. Readers will be familiar with how the expectation of a random quantity for a small sample will have a large amount of variation around its value that only reduces as the sample size increases, so this isn't a surprise. However, it does highlight that even with completely unbiased sampling from the full distribution will typically give rise to extra "structure" within the distribution implied by the samples.

## Generalisation

Now almost all modelling techniques, while not necessarily estimating a full model of the the probability distributions from the training samples, can be seen as building functions that are related to the probability distribution: for example, a thresholding classifier for dividing input into two output classes will place the threshold at the optimal point for the distribution implied by the samples. As a consequence, one important aim in building machine learning models is to try to estimate the features that are present in the full probability distribution while not learning such fine details that they are likely to be spurious features due to the small sampling. If you think about this, it's a bit counter-intuitive: you deliberately don't want to perfectly reflect all every single the patterns pattern in the training data. Indeed, specialising a model too closely to the training is given the name over-fitting.

generalisation This brings us togeneralisation. Strictly speaking generalization is the ability of a model to work well upon unseen instances of the problem (which may be difficult for a variety of reasons). In practice however one tries hard to get representative training data so that the main issue in generalization is in preventing overfitting.

sparsity One factor that's often related to generalization is sparsity. This refers to the degree to which a model has empty elements, typically represented as 0 coefficients.

<!-- <div align = "center"> <a href = "http://www.shrimpnews.com/FreeReportsFolder/WeatherFolder/ElNino.html#Monster"> <img width = "445" src = "http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/ecological/el_nino/ElNinoMap1998.jpg"> </a> </div> -->

## Inference

inference It is certainly possible to take a predictive model obtained by machine learning and use it to figure out a physically based model; this is one way of performing what's known adata mining. However in practice there are a couple of reasons why it's necessary to exhibit some care when doing this:

• The variables in the training set may be related by some non-observed latent variables which may be difficult to reconstruct without knowledge of the physical laws that are in play.

• x

• It's common to have very highly correlated input variables. In that case a model will generally learn a function which utilises an arbitrary combination of the correlated variables and an equally good model would result from using any other combination. Certain sparsity encouraging priors have the useful property of encouraging the model to select only one representative from a group of correlated variables. However, even in that case it's still important not to assign too much importance to the particular division of model parameters in groups correlated variables.

• y

## Conclusions

All of the ideas discussed above are really just ways of making sure that work on statistical/machine learning models are producing meaningful results in situations where the training data is scarce. As Bob Dylan (almost) sang, "to work outside the physical law, you must be honest, I know you always say that you agree".

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