S. H. Mohr and G. M. Evans, Forecasting coal production until 2100, Fuel 88 (2009) 2059–2067.
The authors develop a model to make projections about the production of mineral resources and apply it to coal producing countries. They describe three scenarios. The Best Guess scenario estimates an ultimately recoverable resource of 1144 Gt: in this scenario world coal productions peaks in 2034 on a mass basis, and in 2026 on an energy basis.